Activity 11, The Political Context
In many ways the Gulf War was an outgrowth of previous Middle East tensions and conflicts. The most important conflict had been the Iranian-Iraqi War. To finance the war, Iraq borrowed 80 billion dollars, mainly from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Saddam Hussein stated that Iraq was defending all Arab states in the Persian Gulf and therefore wanted them to forgive the loans. They refused.
Iraq was desperate. The nation's economy had been ruined by the war with Iran. The investment needed to repair the damage was estimated to cost 230 billion dollars. To revive the economy, Iraq's one million man army needed to be demobilized, but this could not happen because there were no jobs. Saddam was under increasing pressure, and knew that if he did not begin to resolve Iraq's problems he would likely be overthrown. Saddam increasingly became erratic. In April 1990, Saddam stated that Iraq had chemical weapons and threatened to burn half of Israel if he was attacked by Israel. The United States State Department declared that the speech was "inflammatory, irresponsible and outrageous." Saddam responded by saying if Israel did not attack Iraq, Iraq would not attack Israel.
Iraq also threatened Kuwait. The Iranian-Iraqi War had convinced Iraq of the importance of access to the Persian Gulf. Two uninhabited Kuwaiti islands controlled Iraq's access to the Gulf and Iraq pressed Kuwait to lease the islands. Likewise, part of the border between Iraq and Kuwait had not been agreed upon. Iraq claimed that Kuwait was pumping oil from this area, and wanted the territorial dispute settled to Iraq's advantage.
When Kuwait and other Arab countries refused to forgive the debts, the only way that Iraq could pay off these loans was to pay with oil revenues. The Iraqi oil industry was the major income producer, but it barely covered Iraq's then current defense budget. In OPEC, Iraq favored restricting oil production, thus increasing the price of oil. Opposed to the Iraqi position were Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) who favored lower oil prices in hopes of ending the global recession. They believed that, if the recession ended, oil prices would then increase.
Saddam Hussein believed that Kuwait and the UAE were producing too much oil, thereby depressing the price on world markets and decreasing Iraqi oil profits. Kuwait and the UAE refused to reduce their oil production. Iraq threatened both. The UAE, remembering the Iraqi attack on its oil wells in 1986, asked the United States to secretly supply two large aircraft to assist in protecting their oil rigs in the Persian Gulf. The United States agreed and announced joint naval maneuvers with the UAE.
The U.S. State Department asserted that there was "no place for coercion and intimidation in a civilized world." The United States was committed to "the individual and collective-defense of our friends in the Gulf with whom we have deep and longstanding ties." On July 25, 1990, Saddam charged that the United States was supporting Kuwait's economic war against Iraq. He asked the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie, what this statement meant. Glaspie reported to Saddam that there was no hostility toward Iraq. In fact, she had been instructed to seek better relations with Iraq. She believed that Iraq's differences with Kuwait should be resolved by Arabs, and that the United States could only support the settlement of the outstanding issues by peaceful means. Saddam encouraged her to believe that the crisis had blown over. He pledged not to use force. Glaspie left Iraq and returned to the United States for a vacation.
In private discussions, Saddam told King Fahd of Saudi Arabia and Hosni Mubarak, president of Egypt, that Iraq had no intention of using military force against Kuwait. But Kuwait had fabulous oil wealth, and was a tempting prize. With Kuwait in Saddam's hands, Iraq could pay its debts and begin a major reconstruction effort. Saddam Hussein, who controlled the fourth largest army in the world, decided to take a gamble. In late July 1990, Iraq moved 100,000 troops to its border with Kuwait. Most observers concluded this was another attempt to intimidate Kuwait to give into Iraq's demands. These observers were wrong.
Student Questions
Was the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait inevitable?
What other solutions could there have been for Iraq?
Why did Saddam Hussein promise not to use force to settle its dispute with Kuwait?
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