China's Changing
Economic Concerns
Background
Information for Teachers:
- Fundamentals
- Geographic
Parameters
Size
and latitudes: Nearly the same area as the USA. Only 11%
of the land is arable (25% in US)
- Weather:
The monsoon cycle. Rainfall concentrated in summer, -heaviest
and most regular in South; light and variable in the North.
All the West is arid.
- Transportation:
Natural-routes include sea and the extensive Yangtze River
system. No natural interior waterways link South and North.
- Implications
for the Economy:
- Population
concentrated in arable plains, coastal strips, and
basins.
- Regions
have been relatively isolated from each other by high
cost of long-distance transportation.
- The
North experiences frequent droughts and floods. (The
Yellow River has changed its course several times
in recorded history.)
- Family:
The Primary Economic Identity
- People
are identified by their families (family name comes first),
economic decisions are made by the family, for the family.
- The
Family Unit: The "small family" - the nuclear household;
the "large family" - the extended family. Both play central
and pervasive roles in economic activity.
- The Traditional
Economy
- Local
Identity: Spatial Structure of the Rural Economy [Skinner]
- Standard
Market Areas: The area served by a standard market town,
which provides basic marketing services to the surrounding
villages and rural households. Conceptually hexagonal.
- Intermediate
Market Areas: Each intermediate market town provides second
level services to six surrounding standard market towns.
- Central
Market Areas: Provide higher level, more specialized services
to surrounding intermediate market towns.
- Macro-regions:
Eight major trading areas linked internally by navigable
waterways, isolated externally by geographic barriers
to efficient transportation
- Core
and Periphery:. Core areas of macro-regions had higher
population densities, more concentrated higher level market
towns and cities.
- Population
Growth: Population growth increased density of rural settlement,
causing new villages to appear, old villages to become
new standard market towns, and marketing centers to shift
up in scale throughout the system.
- Change
in the Pre-modern Economy
Technological
Innovation and Population Growth: Major population increases
generally followed key technological innovations if the
country was at peace. Use of iron tools in Warring States
period (403-221 BC); introduction of fast-ripening Champa
rice in Song (960-1279) (the first it pre-modern green revolution");
introduction of New World Crops (maize [corn], potatoes,
peanuts, sweet potatoes) in late Ming (1500s); introduction
of industry and modern transportation in late 19th and early
20th centuries.
The
High-Level Equilibrium Trap (Elvin): Theorizes that China
did not have its own industrial revolution because the pre-modern
Chinese economy made such efficient use of pre-industrial,
labor-intensive technology that there was not enough incentive
to invest in mechanization.
- The Modern
Economy
- When
is Modern?
One
economic answer (of several possibilities): When modern
transportation (steamships and railways) effectively linked
Chinese domestic markets with international markets. This
happened in the late 19th century to rice, cotton, soybeans,
peanuts, and other agricultural commodities, as well as
tea and silk, which had been traded internationally even
earlier. Simultaneously, standard market areas begin to
disappear when mechanized transportation enables farm families
to go directly to higher level market centers.
- The
Modern Economy Before 1949
Agriculture:
Almost entirely pre-industrial, but very highly evolved.
Characterized by specialization, responsiveness to markets,
intensive labor. North: Wheat, corn, sorghum, peanuts, cotton.
South: Rice, tea, silk, vegetables.
Industry:
Modern industry limited to major cities, most on East coast,
plus Wuhan and Manchuria (Northeast China). Textiles, machine
shops, iron, cement, coal mining, cigarettes, matches.
Commerce:
Local commerce lively. Inter-regional trade limited by transportation
costs. International trade limited, but important from mid-19th
century.
Strengths:
Flexibility; ability to respond to market opportunities.
Major
Problems: Wide income disparities. Disruptions caused
by war, civil war, banditry.
- Major
Debates About the Pre-1949 Modern Economy
- Did
international trade stimulate the economy, or make it
vulnerable to the disastrous effects of wars, fluctuations
in world markets (hairnets, tea, silk, etc.), and the
Great Depression?
- Did
Chinese farmers become worse off, better off, or stay
at about the same living standard level in the early 20th
century?
- Would
China have achieved an efficient modern economy by mid-century
if it had not been disrupted by civil wars and the invasion
by Japan?
- The
Centrally Planned Socialist Economy (late 1950s to end 1970s)
Agriculture:
Collectives, the commune system: Commune- Production Brigade-
Production Team-Household. Income distributed by work points.
About 5% of land allocated to private plots. Industry permitted
in communes and brigades for certain products: Cement, fertilizer,
farm machinery, electricity.
Industry:
Most state-owned, inputs and products allocated by plan.
Profits accruedto state budget. Wages based mainly on seniority.
Commerce:
Primarily through state procurement and marketing agencies.
Prices set by state. Relatively little exchange between
regions and localities. Foreign trade significant for bottle-neck
items, but very small relative to GNP; about 6%. Conducted
only by state agencies.
Strengths:
Public health very good given very limited resources. Income
differences sharply narrowed. Necessities provided to nearly
all. Strong progress in heavy industry and infrastructure.
Problems:
Inflexibility. Lack of specialization. Ineffective incentive
systems at all levels. Slow progress in technological innovation.
Inaccurate price signals. Stagnation in provision of consumer
goods.
- The
Reforming Economy ("Socialist Market Economy") (early 1980s
to the present)
Agriculture:
Shift to household contract farming. Communes disolved;
brigades and teams converted (in some cases reverted) to
townships or villages. Private enterprise legalized ("specialized
households"). Restrictions on non-contract production eliminated.
Rapid expansion of rural industry. Industry: Items under
plan cut by three-fourths. State enterprises remit taxes
rather than all profits. Off-plan production and marketing
legalized. Adoption of contract system for management and
wages. Private, joint venture and wholly foreign-owned enterprises
legalized. Rural industry most dynamic element, accounting
for over a third of output in 1990.
Commerce:
Restrictions greatly reduced at all levels. Free markets
in cities legalized and encouraged. off-plan trading legalized.
Private transportation and trading legalized. Direct contact-between
Chinese and foreign firms legalized. Sharp growth in importance
of foreign trade, to over a quarter of GNP.
Strengths:
Strong growth in production and productivity in most sectors,
notably in provision of consumer goods. Rapid rise in real
incomes. Flexibility. Responsiveness to market fluctuations.
Great increase in specialization. Much surplus rural labor
absorbed by rural and urban informal industry. Free markets
generate accurate prices. Economic Zones along the coastal
region has contributed greatly to recent industrialization
efforts. Tax breaks, low costs for land, and cheap labor
have encouraged significant foreign investment.
Major
Problems: State sector weakened by private sector and
vice versa. Chaotic price "system." Widening income disparities.
Neglect of collective facilities, like schools, clinics,
irrigation systems. Persistence of "soft budget constraint"
for inefficient state enterprises. Persistence of state
subsidies for grain sold in cities. Strong inflationary
pressures.
- Unresolved
Hot Topics
Is
the "socialist market economy" ("socialism with Chinese
characteristics") just a euphemism for capitalism? What
is socialism? Can rapid economic growth coexist with equitable
income distribution? Can rapid economic growth coexist with
a healthy environment? (Note the Three Gorges Dam controversy.
Additional
resources on Chinese economic identity
William Skinner,
"Marketing and Social Structure in Rural China," The Journal
of Asian Studies, Vol. 24, No. 1 (Nov. 1964); Vol. 24, No. 2
(Feb. 1965); Vol. 24, No. 3 (May 1965).
Mark Elvin,
The Pattern of the Chinese Past (Stanford, 1973).
Thomas G.
Rawski, Economic Growth in Prewar China (University of California
Press, 1989).
Huang, Philip
C. C., The Peasant Economy and Social Change in North China
(Stanford, 1985).
Carl Riskin,
China's Political Economy: The Quest for Development Since 1949
(Oxford University Press, 1987).
Peter Nolan,
The Political Economy of Collective Farms: An Analysis of China's
Post-Mao Rural Reforms (Westview, 1988)
Useful Periodicals
The China
Quarterly
China Daily
Beijing Review
Current History (September edition)
Other Appropriate
Materials:
Mark L. Clifford,
Dexter Roberts, Joyce Barnathan and Pete Engardio, "Can China Reform
Its Ecomony?" Business Week: September 29, 1987.
Seth Faison,
"In Major Shift, China Will Sell State Industries," The New York
Times, 1997.
Seth Faison,
"A Great Tiptoe Forward: Private enterprise in China," The New
York Times, 1997.
Edward A.
Gargan, "Weakness Seen in China's Economic Boom," The New York
Times, 1997.
Peter Passell,
"Economic Scene: Is China's Latest Move to Capitalism Real?" The
New York Times, 1997.
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